► Handbook on Population
by Robert Sassone
Released October 12, 2005

The author's special thanks for assistance to Lucy Brown, Joseph Damroth, Robert Lynch, Jamie Akana, Susan Morriss, Elizabeth Ruth, Robert Louis and Holly Sassone.

PREFACE

UNICEF alleges that nearly 3 million of the 12.9 million annual child deaths could be prevented by 25 cents per child worth of cotrimoxazole. (SW4) Many other deaths could be prevented at low cost. The author asks: "Why not?" Why not make more progress in reducing the number of deaths of young children? Why not solve a lot of other problems?

The prevailing answers are: "because we have to stop population growth first," "because it's too costly" or "because there is not enough of this or too much of that." Things there are alleged to be not enough of relate to population and include food, resources, energy, ozone, quality of life, and space. Things there are alleged to be too much of include pollution, species extinction, global warming, ultraviolet radiation, people, and population growth.

Many of the excuses for not saving the 3 million children derive from arguments that we must first stop population growth. (WC)

This book examines population growth to determine if it is a severe problem as many believe, or if we should worry less about it and switch our efforts to problems like preventing the deaths of those 3 million children.

REFERENCES

(SW)   The State of the World's Children 1993 United Nations International         Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF)  (WC)   President Clinton to UN General Assembly: "To ensure a healthier and         more abundant world, we simply must slow the world's explosive growth         in population." as quoted by US Ambassador Victor Marrero, in the         Second Committee, on Agenda Item #96, the International Conference         on Population and Development, 11/4/93. This speech, like too many         others, repeatedly indicated population growth as the problem we         must solve, but ignored development and reducing unnecessary deaths.

FORMAT

A question-and-answer format is used to help the reader to quickly find desired facts. References are at the end of each chapter for easy accessibility. Footnotes usually comprise two capital letters in parentheses, sometimes followed by a page number or other indication of how to find desired data within the reference.

Other steps are taken to save space. For additional detils or updated references, please contact A.L.L., P.O. Box 1350, Stafford, VA 22555, (540) 659-4171. Send $4.00 to A.L.L. to purchase a book.

Telephone numbers of references permitting the reader to obtain additional information from the author's references or a way to obtain the numbers will usually be sent without charge to those sending a stamped self-addressed envelope with their request.

CHAPTER 1

UNDERSTANDING POPULATION

101     What does this book do?  102     What is the population controversy?  103     What is population control?  104     Why is it so important to determine which side is correct about          population?  105     Why can it be argued that traditional Christianity's belief about          population is wrong if the population controllers are correct?  106     How do advocates of population control describe the population          situation?  107     What reasons do population control advocates give for their          conclusion that the earth is overpopulated?  108     How do opponents of population control respond to claims by          population control advocates?  109     Is there a general rule for finding which side of this controversy          is correct?  110     What are tests that can be used to catch the side that is lying?  111     How many of the major statements of the advocates of population          control were incorrect when made or have been proven incorrect in          recent years?  112     Name the foremost pro-population control study, book and individual.  113     How accurate were the data, methods, predictions and conclusions          of Global 2000?  114     How accurate were the data, methods, predictions and conclusions          of Limits to Growth?  115     How accurate have the predictions of individual population          control advocates been?  116     How accurate were the population controller predictions?  117     What have advocates of population stagnation said about human          rights?  118     What apparently motivates population control leaders?

101: What does this book do?

Population control advocates and their opponents make contradictory claims about the population situation. This book gives the reader enough facts to determine which side is to be believed.

102: What is the population controversy?

Population control activists and supporters say that there are either too many people now or that there will be soon. These activists say that overpopulation is so severe that governments must impose population control. Others disagree with the population control activists and oppose this sort of government intervention.

For example, UNICEF estimates that 12.9 million children die annually. Population control advocates blame the deaths on an inability to grow enough food for a growing population. They allege that nothing can be done to prevent these deaths until we first reduce population growth, so that the best way to prevent deaths is to spend billions of dollars on family planning.

Population control opponents counter that there is plenty of food and claim most of the deaths could be prevented by a variety of cost-effective techniques. They cite particular examples like the UNICEF claim that more than one million deaths from pneumonia could be prevented annually at a cost of 25 cents per child for cotrimoxazole, an antibiotic, plus a distribution cost. (SW4)

103: What is population control?

Population control is use of government money, laws, incentives and force to control conduct and persuade or force people to have fewer children. Population control is the use of government and media by a few to tell everyone else how many can live.

104: Why is it so important to determine which side is correct about population?

Advocates of population control allege that population growth has caused and will continue to cause problems so serious that drastic action must be taken to stop population growth. Activists use population growth as a reason to coerce changes in people's intimate beliefs and childbearing practices. These activists also use population control arguments that attack traditional moral and family values.

105: Why can it be argued that traditional Christianity's belief about population is wrong if the population controllers are correct?

Traditional Christianity claims to be a religion revealed by God, not just a mere philosophy. If God is infallible and truly founded Christianity, Christianity could not make a major error. Genesis 1:28 states: "God blessed them, saying: 'Be fertile and multiply; fill the earth and subdue it'" (New American Bible). All Christian churches condemned all forms of abortion and artificial birth control (condoms, etc.) for 1900 years until about 1930. Even today, churches to which most Christians in the world belong condemn all but natural family planning. If the population controllers are correct, it can be argued that Christianity is wrong because its teachings cause more babies to be born.

106: How do advocates of population control describe the population situation?

"The U.S. hopes that the document [to be prepared by the 1994 UN Population Conference in Cairo] will state clearly that stabilizing the world's population is a goal which underlies and mutually reinforces all of the other goals that have already been identified." (VM)

"Our runaway brain has enabled us to multiply unreasonably in numbers, putting such pressures on the planet that ecological and nuclear catastrophes become a real possibility...Surely we are too smart to go on breeding ourselves to extinction, destroying most of the rest of the species on the planet in the process." (DI)

107: What reasons do population control advocates give for their conclusion that the earth is overpopulated?

Population control advocates allege that overpopulation has caused the following problems:

a) Food shortages-"The world will undergo famines-hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now." (PB, Prologue)

b) Resource depletion-They claim that we will run out of important minerals such as uranium, manganese, chromium, nickel, zinc, tin, aluminum, gold, silver, platinum, and lead. (PR, PE, G2)

c) Energy shortages-They claim that more people use more energy and will cause us to run out of petroleum, natural gas and coal. (PR, PE, G2)

d) Overcrowding now-Population control advocates claim that even today there is not enough available space per person.

e) Massive overcrowding soon-Since there is only a limited amount of space, and population has apparently doubled every given number of years, population control advocates claim that population must inevitably overcrowd everywhere.

f) Deteriorating quality of life. (PE, PB, LG, G2)

g) Pollution-They claim that increased population growth necessarily means increased pollution, so much so that it could lead to global extermination. (LG)

h) Severe global warming-Increased population and more energy use cause more carbon dioxide to be released into the atmosphere. Population control advocates allege that this will cause disastrous global warming.

i) Ozone depletion-Population control advocates allege that more people result in more chemical pollution that destroys more atmospheric ozone, allowing more ultraviolet light to reach the earth and causing millions to die from skin cancer.

j) Massive extinction-Population control advocates allege that the increase in numbers of people is crowding the earth so much that many thousands of species become extinct each year.

k) Literally the end of the world as we know it. The combination of problems caused by population growth may destroy the world, since they cannot be solved with only our limited assets. (LG)

l) Finally, population control advocates allege that there is no advantage to additional population growth. According to them, even if we are not sure that disasters will follow, there is no reason to permit continued population growth.

108: How do opponents of population control respond to claims by population control advocates?

There are about fifty ways to test claims made by population control advocates. Later chapters of this book examine and use these fifty or so tests. Opponents of population control allege that fair interpretation of the facts shows that every argument for population control is frivolous.

109: Is there a general rule for finding which side of this controversy is correct?

In a complicated controversy, a good way to learn which side is telling the truth is to look at the content of opposing arguments.

The side that is incorrect often repeats simple statements supporting their position and avoids mentioning arguments by the opposition. This side hopes to win by keeping you in the dark about opposition arguments.

By contrast, the side that is correct will not shy away from mentioning opposing arguments to show why they are incorrect or not relevant. They hope to win because you know the opposition arguments but know why they are incorrect.

110: What are tests that can be used to catch the side that is lying?

First break down big questions into simpler component parts. Then compare the facts by applying these rules.

a) Which side states facts that more closely explain the known situation?

b) Which side gives the information that negates the opposing side's claims?

c) Which side gives and repeats only partial explanations?

d) Which side suppresses unfavorable facts?

e) Which side makes wrong predictions?

f) Which side relies on statements that cannot be proven?

111: How many of the major statements of the advocates of population control were incorrect when made or have been proven incorrect in recent years?

Opponents of population control allege that all major statements allegedly justifying population control are false. This book discusses the most important of these disputed statements.

112: Name the foremost pro-population control study, book and individuals.

The most important U.S. Government study favoring population control has been the 1980 Global 2000 Report to the President by the Carter administration. The most important non-government study has been Limits to Growth by Meadows, et al. The most famous individual advocate of population control has been Stanford Professor Paul Ehrlich, who wrote the most publicized book Population Bomb. Their arguments are still honored and respected by population control advocates. For example, on September 20, 1993, Jane Fonda made a pro-population control speech to the United Nations in which she favorably cited both Meadows and Ehrlich.

113: How accurate were the data, methods, predictions and conclusions of Global 2000?

The data of Global 2000 were incomplete and inaccurate in most essential areas related to its conclusions about population. The predictions and conclusions of Global 2000 were not accurate and did not follow from the data. They apparently were selected to mislead rather than inform. A typical prediction claimed that due to shortages, U.S. gasoline prices would be $3 per gallon before 1993. Global 2000 omitted contradictory data. Its summaries and conclusions, given massive publicity, did not follow from its data. For a detailed analysis of Global 2000 and its many errors and misleading statements, please see The Resourceful Earth: A Response to Global 2000 (1984), edited by Simon and Kahn.

114: How accurate were the data, methods, predictions and conclusions of Limits to Growth?

Limits to Growth was the most famous computer study alleging that population growth should be stopped. It predicted that the world would come to an end with the death of all humans within 100 years (by about 2070) if population growth continued.

The data of Limits to Growth were incomplete and sometimes inaccurate. Additionally, the leader of Limits to Growth admitted that they had deliberately lied in order to jolt people into accepting their desired conclusions. (TI) Contrary data that should have been considered were omitted.

Limits to Growth's methods were likewise flawed. In one of the major calculation factors there was an error of 900%. If this is corrected, Limits to Growth comes to very different, non-threatening conclusions, and the world does not come to an end. (NA)

The rules used in Limits to Growth included an assumption that there would be no substantial scientific or technical advances. In the real world, scientific and technical advances are consistently increasing in number and importance. As a demonstration of the significance of its error, these rules were used to predict the period 1870 to 1970 from the basis of what was known in 1870, and the computer calculated that the world had to come to an end before 1970, in part because of the inability to control the massive amounts of horse manure.

115: How accurate have the predictions of individual population control advocates been?

The following are taken from the 1968 Population Bomb by Paul Ehrlich.

a) "The next nine years [ending in 1977] will probably tell the story." p 21

b) "The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970's the world will undergo famines-hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now." (Prologue)

c) "At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate." (Prologue)

d) "Each year food production in underdeveloped countries falls a bit further behind burgeoning population growth, and people go to bed a little bit hungrier." (p 17)

e) "A minimum of 3? million will starve to death this year, mostly children. But this is a mere handful compared to the numbers that will be starving in a decade or so." (p. 17)

f) "The world, especially the undeveloped world, is rapidly running out of food" (p 36). Compare the preceding statements about food with the food data in Chapter 2 of this book. Population Bomb contained no specific statements about resources that could be checked. Ehrlich did, however make specific statements about resources in Population, Resources, Environment, published in 1970, as follows:

g) The U.S. should by now have run out of reserves of crude oil, uranium, manganese, cobalt, copper, chromium, nickel, lead, zinc, tin, aluminum, gold, silver and platinum.

h) The world should have already run out of each of the following minerals: lead, zinc, tin, gold, silver, platinum, and should run out of natural gas, copper and tungsten about the year 2000, and crude oil shortly thereafter.

The preceding statements about resources should be compared with the resource data in chapter 3 of this book.

116: How accurate were the population controller predictions?

a) The world food situation improved by an average of 1% per year every year of the 20 years before 1968, the year Ehrlich wrote Population Bomb. Ehrlich did not mention this 20% improvement. In the nine years after Population Bomb was written, a time which Ehrlich claimed would be critical, every prediction about food made by Ehrlich was proven wrong.

Furthermore, the trends improved and went opposite of the way he said. Food production in the years since Population Bomb has continued to increase faster than population has increased. (SFv)

b) In the 1970's there were no major famines. The rate of starvation has probably been at least a thousand times lower than predicted by Ehrlich. In the most famous 1970's famine, in the Sahel, according to relief workers on the scene, the only human deaths were caused by the failure of people to go to where relief supplies were being distributed. There was always sufficient food available. According to UN data, there was no significant increase in the death rate in any nation affected by the famine. There was more grain carried over in storage inside the nations affected by the famine than there had been ten years before the famine. The famine was not significant enough to reduce population growth in the affected nations. (If there had been substantial famine deaths, population would have declined.)

c) There has not been any increase in the world death rate. In fact, there has been a substantial reduction in the death rate and an increase in life expectancy averaging at least four months longer life expectancy each year nearly everywhere. (DYv)

d) When made, Ehrlich's statement that food production was falling behind needs was exactly opposite to the truth. Each year since Ehrlich wrote Population Bomb in 1968, on the average, food production in developing countries has increased more than population growth. In fact, between the year Population Bomb was written and 1990, the average diet in developing nations, according to the UN, improved by 20%. Before 1968, according to the UN, fewer than 5% of people in developing nations lived in nations where the average diet exceeded 2,600 calories per day, while during 1987-1989, half the people in developing nations lived in nations where the average diet exceeded 2,600 calories per day.

The U.S. government recommendation for average calorie intake is 2,200 calories per day. By 1990, developing countries inhabited by about 86% of people exceeded this amount, while most of the remaining 14% of people lived in countries where the average diet was just slightly below the recommended 2,200 calories per day. (SF91, pp 221-223) (FN)

e) Ehrlich's statement about starvation was wrong, exactly the opposite of what had been happening and exactly the opposite of what would happen since.

f) Ehrlich was wrong and apparently knew it. In the later editions of Population Bomb, published when people could determine there was no widespread starvation during the 1970s, Ehrlich changed his prediction to state: "In the 1970's and 1980's, the world will undergo famines-hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now." His weakened prediction was still wrong; the food situation continued to improve.

g) Ehrlich was wrong about running out of minerals and energy. Reserves of energy and of nearly every mineral are at record high levels. Population control advocates intentionally misstate the mineral situation by not carefully explaining what reserves are. Reserves are the minerals that we know about that are cheapest to take out of the ground. They are used first because there is more profit in using them first. The total amount of a particular mineral may be billions of times greater than reserves.

117: What have advocates of population stagnation said about human rights?

Here are some quotes from Ardrey, Hardin, Harper, and Ehrlich. "Humanism's respect for the dignity of man and its regard for every human life as sacred, while among the most powerful forces ever to advance man's welfare along certain fronts, had ambiguous results on others..." "We must consider enforced contraception, whether through taxation on surplus children, or through more severe means such as conception license, replacing or supplementing the marriage license. Abortion should be freely available to those suffering unintended pregnancy. In international relations, of course, any aid to peoples who through ignorance, prejudice or political hypnosis fail to control their numbers might be forbidden." (LI)

"If we love the truth we must openly deny the validity of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, even though it is promoted by the United Nations." "As a genetically trained biologist...It seems to me that, if there are to be differences in individual inheritance, legal possession should be perfectly correlated with biological inheritance - that those who are biologically more fit to be the custodians of property should legally inherit more." "Coercion is a dirty word to most liberals now, but it need not forever be so. As with the four letter words, its dirtiness can be cleaned away by exposure to the light, by saying it over and over without apology or embarrassment." (GH)

"Effecting radical changes in the birth rates by voluntary means alone is 'manifestly hopeless,' Robert A. Harper of Washington told the American Psychological Association meeting here...The only solution is to take away the right to reproduce, he said...His recommendation would simply 'in one full and nondiscriminatory sweep take away the right to reproduce from everyone.'" (RH)

"Many of my colleagues feel that some sort of compulsory birth regulation would be necessary to achieve such control. One plan often mentioned involves the addition of temporary sterilants to the water supplies or staple food. Doses of antidote would be carefully rationed by the government to produce the desired population size." (PB135)

"A Federal Department of Population and Environment (DPE) should be set up with power to take whatever steps are necessary to establish a reasonable population size in the United States and to put an end to the steady deterioration of our environment. The DPE would be given ample funds to support research in the areas of population control and environmental quality. In the first area it would promote intensive investigation of new techniques of birth control, possibly leading to the development of mass sterilizing agents such as were discussed above." (PB138)

118: What apparently motivates population control leaders?

The author believes population explosion propaganda is used to deceive the public to justify political decisions that some population control leaders want made for other reasons.

REFERENCES

(DI)    Discover magazine, Aug, 1993, p 59  (DY)    UN Demographic Yearbook, published annually  (FN)    Source for the recommendation of 2,200 calories per person per day          is the Food & Nutrition Board, National Academy of Sciences-National          Research Council, which lists calories per person for various ages          and both sexes; 2,200 calories is the average sufficient for the          recommended age and sex calorie consumption  (G2)    Global 2000 Report to the President, Carter administration 1980  (GH)    Garrett Hardin, "The Tragedy of the Commons," Science, Dec 13, 1968  (LG)    D. H. Meadows, et al., The Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club          of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind Universe Books, NY          (1972)  (LI)    Robert Ardrey, "Control of Population," Life, Feb 20, 1970  (NA)    Nature magazine, Sept 21, 1973  (PB)    Paul Ehrlich, Population Bomb (1968),  Ballantine Books, NY  (PE)    Paul Ehrlich and Anne Ehrlich, Population Explosion (1990), Simon &          Schuster, NY  (PR)    Paul Ehrlich, et al., Population, Resources, Environment (1970)  (RH)    Ob.Gyn. News, Nov 1, 1969  (SF)    The State of Food & Agriculture, published annually by the Food &          Agricultural Organization of the United Nations. Year is the first          two-digit number, followed by the page number. The term "v" means          various and is used where various years contain the data  (SW)    The State of the World's Children 1993, published for UNICEF by          Oxford University Press  (TI)    Time magazine, Apr 26, 1976, p 56  (VM)    Statement by U.S. Ambassador Victor Marrero to UN General Assembly,          in the Second Committee, on Agenda Item #96, the International          Conference on Population and Development, Nov 4, 1993

CHAPTER 2

FOOD PRODUCTION

201     What do advocates of population control say about food?  202     How do opponents criticize the statements population controllers          make about food?  203     What do opponents of population control say about food?  204     How can you determine if the advocates or opponents of population          control are correct about food?  205     What is the key thing to understand about food?  206     How many people die annually from starvation?  207     Why are the claims of malnutrition deaths by population controllers          false?  208     What does the World Bank say about malnutrition?  209     Why is the World Bank malnutrition data in Q 208 misleading?  210     What are the leading causes of starvation?  211     Are large populations or high population density associated with          malnutrition?  212     What is the leading cause, other than war, of child malnutrition?  213     Does government discrimination against agriculture substantially          reduce food production?  214     Has world food production increased faster than population has grown?  215     What are the exact numbers showing food supply production per capita          improvement since 1948?  216     How has the average diet in developing countries improved in calories          consumed per day from the years 1961 to 1989?  217     How many developing countries have improved their per caput food          production during the years of record population growth since 1948-          1952?  218     What is the recommended number of calories which should be consumed          each day?  219     In how many countries have people improved the average diet by          increasing the number of calories consumed?  220     Has food production in the developing countries increased faster          than population has grown?  221     How have cereal and meat production increased?  222     What is the most common technique population control advocates use          to mislead the public?  223     How has production of grain, wheat, rice and meat increased in          comparison with population?  224     Why has food production increased faster than population has grown          in recent years?  225     Why is food production likely to increase faster than population          growth in the developing countries in the future?  226     What has the UN said about how much of the world's arable land has          been in use?  227     How much potential agricultural land is there in the world?  228     People of how many of the most populated developing countries consume          enough calories?  229     How accurate are the assertions of Planned Parenthood about the world          food situation?  230     How costly would it be to produce a machine that would prevent          malnutrition?

201: What do advocates of population control say about food?

Advocates of population control have repeatedly claimed that a lack of food is the most important reason for population control. For example, "The most pressing factor now limiting the capacity of the earth to support Homo Sapiens is the supply of food." (PR66) "...it seems likely that food will be our limiting resource." (PE66)

202: How do opponents criticize the statements population controllers make about food?

Opponents allege that population controllers rely only on selected parts of UN and U.S. agriculture data, which, out of context, support their position. The overall data do not support their position.

Perhaps the best example of this is the annual report by Worldwatch Institute. In spite of many years of massive generally continual improvement in the world food situation, each January the Worldwatch Institute press release ignores the improvements. Instead, it finds some isolated thing somewhere in the world that has deteriorated, and focuses exclusively on what bad news there is. Much of the media each year reports the tiny misleading area described by the Worldwatch press release as if it were a fair description of the world food situation.

203: What do opponents of population control say about food?

Opponents of population control claim to rely on complete UN and U.S. food production and consumption data, which they allege shows that by every reasonable way to measure, the food situation has improved during the past 50 years of fast population growth. Food shortages and related problems such as malnutrition have diminished. In fact, food production could be increased so much, if desired, that potential food production should be no excuse for any human malnutrition.

204: How can you determine if the advocates or opponents of population control are correct about food?

If the advocates of population control are correct about food, then all the following statements should be false. If opponents of population control are correct, all the following statements should be true:

a) The amount of food produced per person has improved.

b) The average amount of calories eaten per person per day has increased.

c) The inhabitants of more countries eat sufficient numbers of calories than in previous years.

d) The percentage of people living in nations with poor diets has decreased and the percentage of people living in nations with sufficient diets has increased.

e) The amount of meat eaten per person has increased.

f) There are reasons to expect additional increases in yield.

g) Food is being grown on a relatively small fraction of all possible food-growing land.

h) The nations with the largest populations are feeding their people well.

i) Food problems are more likely in nations with fewer people.

j) People in nearly all nations have an improving and, on average, adequate diet.

k) Life expectancy is increasing substantially as population increases.

The more of the preceding a-k that are wrong, the more likely advocates of population control are correct. The more of the preceding a-k are correct, the more likely the opponents of population control are correct and the more likely it is that population growth is not a problem requiring population control.

205: What is the key thing to understand about food?

All of the statements a-k in the preceding question are true. The world food situation has been the best in world history during the generally continual improvement since 1948. Every year for about fifty years, the best description of the world food situation has been that recent years have been the best ever. There is no reason to expect that this improvement in the food situation will stop in the foreseeable future.

206: How many people die annually from starvation?

Nobody knows. The UN and the U.S. do not publish such data. Most starvation occurs in war zones where it is impossible to collect precise data.

207: Why are the claims of malnutrition deaths by population controllers false?

In 1968, Paul Ehrlich claimed that "In the 1970's the world will undergo famines-hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now." (PB) In later editions of his book, when it was obvious massive starvation was not occurring, Ehrlich changed the prediction from "In the 1970's" to "In the 1970's and 1980's." In the sequel to Population Bomb, Population Explosion, published in 1990, the third sentence of the Preface states, "Since 1968, at least 200 million people-mostly children-have perished needlessly of hunger and hunger-related diseases..." Ehrlich then references UNICEF, WHO, and "other sources" and claims in a footnote that "40,000 children [in the developing world] die daily (14.6 million a year) from hunger-related diseases..."

Via telephone, UNICEF strongly denied Ehrlich's claim that UNICEF ever said anything that could be interpreted to mean that 40,000 children in the developing world die daily from hunger-related diseases. UNICEF's spokesman and their publication The State of the World's Children 1993 both stated, "The total number of child deaths in the developing world is given as 12.9 million." (SW1)

UNICEF reports 12.9 million children die annually from all causes, of which 8.1 million are preventable. Of these, 3.6 million are from pneumonia, 3 million from diarrhoeal diseases, 2.1 million from vaccine-preventable diseases, and 4.3 million from all other causes (some deaths have two causes). Death caused by malnutrition is not listed as a separate category, but more than 70% of the child deaths (SW70) are in countries where the average number of calories consumed exceeds what the U.S. recommends for a healthy diet. (FN)

208: What does the World Bank say about malnutrition?

"Low height for a given age, or stunting, is the most prevalent symptom of protein-energy malnutrition; approximately 40% of all two-year-olds in developing countries are short for their age" (WD 75). "...in developing countries 25% of those [child] deaths are attributed to mild or moderate underweight." (WD p 76 Table 4.3)

209: Why is the World Bank malnutrition data in Q 208 misleading?

The following examples of misleading World Bank statements discussed herein are typical.

Some of any group will be shorter. It is no surprise that 40% of children are short. The important question is whether this shortness is caused by malnutrition or some other cause such as an inherited tendency to be short. The World Bank data appears to be selected to mislead. Table 28 claims that 13% of Egyptian children under five are malnourished. (WD p 292) This appears misleading since Egyptians consume more calories than inhabitants of Great Britain, Canada or Australia, which have no reported child malnourishment problem. (SF92, pp 255-258)

In another example of misleading data (one out of many possible examples), in Table 28 the World Bank claims that 45% of Sri Lankan children under five are malnourished. (WD292) This appears unlikely, since according to the UNFAO, the average number of calories consumed in Sri Lanka for a generation (SF92 P256) has exceeded the 2,200 daily calorie intake recommended (FN) by the U.S. (SF92 p 256) UNICEF states that the Sri Lanka diet is greater than 100% of requirements. (SF71) Additional reasons for doubting the World Bank claim include the fact that Sri Lanka has a life expectancy greater than 70, which is unlikely if 45% of its children are malnourished. Sri Lanka had average 1991 life expectancy and a 1991 infant mortality rate better than some European countries. (SW69)

Many other examples can be given that cast additional doubt on the World Bank report's accuracy and honesty. Examining their definition of malnutrition, we find that it includes fat as well as thin children, and those who could benefit from a vitamin pill containing vitamin A, iron and iodine. (WD Table 28 explanation) In Table 4.3, they state that more than 70% of alleged malnutrition is caused by Vitamin A, iodine or iron deficiency. (WD76) The World Bank omits to state that this deficiency could be cleared up by a twice-a-week vitamin pill, total cost of about one dollar per year per child, assuming a cost of a penny per pill.

210: What are the leading causes of starvation?

Starvation is either death due to lack of food or death by causes stemming from a previous lack of food. There has been some starvation, but substantially all of that starvation has been caused by bad government.

War, including the use of food as a weapon, has been the greatest cause of starvation, responsible for perhaps as much as 90% of starvation deaths over the past 30 years. The list of countries with very poor diets contains nearly all the countries recently ravaged by war and few that have not been ravaged by war. (SF92 pp 255-257)

Inept government meddling with the economy, interfering with the incentive and opportunity for farmers to grow vast amounts of food, has been a great cause of lower food production leading to malnutrition, as discussed in Q212. Drought and bad weather occasionally reduce food production, but if a country has previously taken reasonable steps to encourage food production, past surpluses and imported food permit all to eat. Poverty and lack of transportation also contribute to malnutrition.

The assumption that all people who die underweight are killed by a lack of calories or protein is not true. Many diseases, such as diarrhoeal diseases and cancer, cause their victims to lose weight before death, regardless of food availability. (SW4-7, 12, 22, 34, 68-79)

211: Are large populations or high population density associated with malnutrition?

Large populations are not associated with malnutrition. The UNFAO lists the 20 countries having the worst food situation, and all of them are low-population countries. None of them are among the 20 most populous countries. 90% of them have below-average population densities. (SF92 p 24)

212: What is the leading cause, other than war, of child malnutrition?

UNICEF lists diarrhoeal diseases, not lack of food, as perhaps the major cause of malnutrition among the developing world's children. (SW22) Other causes of malnutrition include lack of vitamin A, iron and iodine, all of which could be prevented by a pill, given twice a week, at a cost of a penny a pill, adding up to a cost of about one dollar per year per child saved. Poverty sometimes makes the victim unable to purchase food. Lack of available food for those able to purchase it is seldom a cause. (SW4-7, 12, 22, 34, 68-79)

213: Does government discrimination against agriculture substantially reduce food production?

Yes. Norman Borloug, Nobel Peace Prize winner for his work with new seeds, stated at the UN Population Conference in 1984 that developing countries could double or triple their food production in 1985 if two reforms were instituted: fair credit for farmers, and fair prices for farmers.

The UNFAO stated, "It is by now commonly acknowledged that both economy-wide and sector-specific policies in many developing countries have discriminated against agriculture, resulting in a negative environment for agricultural production and investment opportunities." The article then went on to claim that food production would increase if countries were fair to their farmers. (SF90 p 94) Many developing countries discriminate against their farmers because they want to keep food prices low in the capital to reduce the risk of revolution.

214: Has world food production increased faster than population has grown?

Yes. There was only slight improvement in the food supply before about 1948, the year of the first UN data, which were slightly improved over the pre-World War II League of Nations data. Since 1948, there has been a more or less continual improvement of nearly one percent per year, so the amount of food per person produced and eaten in recent years by inhabitants of developing countries has been about 40% more than at any time before 1948. (SFv)

215: What are the exact numbers showing food supply production per capita improvement since 1948?

In an average year, world food production has increased more than 2% while population has increased less than 2%. The best measure of food supply per person is per caput (per person) food production. The UN only publishes recent years, so to obtain a long-term comparison, one must compare data from more than one edition of The State of Food and Agriculture. The exact data are as follows:

Per Caput (Per Person) World Food Production

                     1986    1987    1988    1989    1990    1991

1979-81 average = 100

World                 105     103     103     105     106     103  Developing Countries  109     108     111     112     113     113  (SF92)

                     1980    1981    1982    1983    1984    1985  World                  99     100     102     101     104     105  Developing Countries   99     102     103     104     107     108  (SF86)

    1969-71 average = 100                               1977    1978    1979    1980    1981  World                         104     107     106     104     105  Developing Countries          105     108     108     108     110  (SF82)

                    years    1948-   1953-   1960    1965    1970                               1952    1957

1952-56 average = 100

World                          93     101     107     108     112  Developing Countries           94     101     104     104     106  (SF58,66,70)

Using the above data, the reader can verify that world per capita food production in 1989-1991 improved by 32% compared to the years 1948-1952, and developing countries improved by 39%. (SFv)

216: How has the average diet in developing countries improved in calories consumed per day from the years 1961 to 1989?

The number of calories per person per day has improved as follows:

Food supplies for direct human consumption

                  1961-63         1969-71         1979-81         1987-89

World                2290            2430            2600            2700  Developing  countries            1930            2100            2330            2470  Least-developed  countries            1930            1980            2050            2050  Low income  countries            1840            2010            2210            2380  (SF91p14)

217: How many developing countries have improved their per caput food production during the years of record population growth since 1948-1952?

Substantially all developing countries have made substantial improvements in their per caput food production since 1948-1952. The average improvement has been about 39%. (SF 1953-1993)

218: What is the recommended number of calories which should be consumed each day?

Adjusted for size, sex, age, and activity level of each person, the recommended number of calories that should be consumed each day is about 2,200. People in colder climates need perhaps 10% more calories than people in warmer climates to make up for calories burned to maintain body temperature. Men usually need more calories than women because the average man is larger than the average woman. A man of the same weight as a woman usually needs more calories, in part because women are better insulated and in part because, on average, men are more muscular.

       Children                 Males                   Females        Age   Calories           Age   Calories           Age   Calories

      0        800            11-14    2700            11-14    2200        1-3     1300            15-18    2800            15-22    2100        4-6     1700            19-22    2900            23-50    2000        7-10    2400            23-50    2700            51+      1800                                   51+   2400

(FN) (except children age 0 estimated by author)

The preceding data for various ages indicates that the average recommended calories for the total population is slightly less than 2,200 calories per day in developing countries.

219: In how many countries have people improved the average diet by increasing the number of calories consumed?

The average diet has improved in nearly all developing countries. In 1961-63, 74% of the people of developing countries lived in countries where the average diet was less than 2,000 calories. By 1987-89, this had been reduced to 6%. In 1987-1989, 50% of the population of developing countries lived in countries with an average diet of more than 2,600 calories, and 86% of the people in developing countries lived in countries with an average diet having more calories than the 2,200 daily calorie recommendation by the Food and Nutrition Board of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences-National Research Council (SF91 p 14, p 221)(FN).

Distribution of Developing Countries by Per Caput Food Supplies
kcal per caput/day

Year        under                2,000-              over            total              2,000                2,600               2,600         population        number of  % of      number of % of       number of % of       millions        countries population countries population countries population

1961-    46      74            75      24            9       2        2130  1963  1969-    25      43            89      52           16       5        2601  1971  1979-    13       6            77      77           39      16        3252  1981  1987-    12       6            62      44           56      50        3845  1989

(SF91 p 14)

220: Has food production in the developing countries increased faster than population has grown?

Yes. Food production in developing countries increased more than 40% between 1947 and 1991.

221: How have cereal and meat production increased?

Cereal production comprises wheat, rice and similar grains. It is important as a measure of whether there is enough food production to keep everyone healthy and sufficiently fed. Meat production is not necessary to keep everyone healthy and sufficiently fed. Meat is a luxury food which is eaten by those who are wealthy enough to eat what they want. Meat production is a good measure of the distance above and beyond a healthy diet that a country's food production has progressed.

Volume of Production of Major Agricultural,
Fishery and Forest Products

Year    1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991  annual rate  World                                                           of change %  (Millions of tons)                                              1981-1990  Cereals 1646 1708 1640 1800 1839 1854 1788 1749 1885 1971 1887     1.45  Wheat    454  481  493  516  504  535  510  507  543  601  553     1.97  Rice,  Paddy    412  425  451  468  471  471  464  491  516  522  518     2.26  Meat     138  139  143  147  152  157  162  169  171  176  179     2.87

(SF92 p197)

                                % increase    % increase           1948-52*   1960*   1970   1980   1990      1948-90       1970-90  Cereals    na        na     1215   1566   1971        na            62%  Wheat     155       221      318    446    601       288%           94%  Rice,  Paddy     110       159      316    399    522       375%           65%  Meat       40        60      107    133    176       340%           64%

Excluding Mainland China (SFv)

222: What is the most common technique population control advocates use to mislead the public?

The most common technique population control advocates use to mislead the public is one of focusing attention on unusual or less important facts while ignoring the true overall situation. The following example, one among hundreds, of the use of this technique is analyzed in detail.

Population control advocate and former anti-Vietnam War activist Jane Fonda, speaking to the UN on September 20, 1993, focused on grain production to falsely claim the world was facing food shortages because of excess population growth. The real problem was just the opposite. There had been so much farm production that prices collapsed and governments had to step in to force farmers to grow less so that the massive supply of excess grain could be eaten and prices could rebound.

Fonda stated, "The production of grain, considered to (be) the most basic economic measure of human well being, increased 2.6 times from 1950 to 1984, much more than the population increased during the same time period, leading to an increase of grain consumption per capita of 40%. But in the nine years since 1984, grain output has only expanded 1% a year, falling behind population and leading to a per capita decline of 1% per year. According to Lester Brown..." (Fonda went on to cite Brown of Worldwatch Institute for the proposition that the whole world would soon be eating worse than the Chinese currently ate.)

The first step in Fonda's effort to mislead others into believing that the world was eating worse than before was to choose an unusual first year, 1984, thus distorting the comparison. Fonda talked as if 1984 was a typical year, but in actuality, 1984 was a year of atypically large grain production, which caused such a large surplus that governments had to take steps to cut food production. This made succeeding years appear poor by comparison. It was true that there was only a 5% increase in grain production between 1984 and 1991, but between 1983 and 1991, the increase in grain production was 15%, far greater than the corresponding increase in population and totally against the situation Fonda tried to represent.

Fonda's second step was to ignore facts indicating that the world was actually eating better. People who eat more meat are not starving. Instead, they are eating a more expensive diet. World meat production increased by 22% from 1984 to 1991.

Fonda also ignored data indicating that peoples' diets actually improved since 1984. Grain is only part of the food grown. Far from declining, per capita food production in developing countries actually improved 6% from 1984 to 1991.

Further, Fonda, in comparing 1984 to 1991, failed to mention the importance of temporary regional strife and the variations that occur over different areas. 1984 was a good year in the USSR and Eastern Europe, but 1991 was a year of revolution, which caused a grain production drop of 5% from 1984 levels. 1991 was also a year of low grain demand in North America and a year of low demand for North American grain exports. Even with the resulting 7% lower grain production than in 1984, North America still had plenty of grain.

Africa and Asia were where food supply was most critical, and Africa increased its grain production by 47% between 1984 and 1991, while the developing countries of the Far East increased grain production by 12%. (SF92 pp 197-205)

The UNFAO points out the real reasons for the situation Fonda misleadingly described: "International market prices fell after 1981...publicly held stocks. [of grain and other price-supported foods] rapidly increased...These problems led to policy adjustments during the period 1981-1985. Supply controls were applied in the form of acreage reduction measures...Throughout the 1980s, a series of export promotion initiatives were taken...difficulties were the result of depressed agricultural exports, high interest rates, supply surpluses, increased farm programme costs and reduced market shares for US agricultural exports...The main pressure for change in the CAP during the 1980s came through the problem of oversupply...As agricultural production increased and oversupply emerged...the problem of oversupply remains..." (SF91 pp 124, 125)

Fonda ignored the cause of the reduction in grain production as outlined above by the UNFAO. The multiplying of the amount of grain production by 2.6 during a time (1950-1984) when population did not even double severely depressed the price of grain, thereby removing incentives for farmers to grow more. During the 1950's and 1960's, a bushel of grain sold for about the same as a barrel of oil, but during the 1970's and 1980's, the price of grain decreased in real terms to about 20% of the 1950 price when allowance is made for inflation, to as low as about 10% of the price of a barrel of oil. Faced with massive grain surpluses, farmers of the developed nations reduced grain production after 1984. Farmers of the Near East and Africa, not faced with massive grain surpluses, increased grain production by more than 40% between 1984 and 1991. (SF92, pp 202, 204)

Thus, the true facts relating to grain production were the opposite of the impression Fonda tried to give in her speech. (FO)

223: How has production of grain, wheat, rice and meat increased in comparison with population?

Year                  average      1960      1970      1980      1990  World                 1948-52  (million tons)

Total cereals           na          na       1,215     1,566     1,952  Wheat                  155         222         318       446       597  Rice                   111         158         316       399       518  Total meat              40          60         107       133       175 (SFv)  Population            2516        3020        3698      4448      5292  (millions)

224: Why has food production increased faster than population has grown in recent years?

Experts compared how food was grown in high-yield production areas with how food was grown in low-yield production areas. High yield techniques used in low yield areas increased yield.

Technology continues to advance. Inexpensive techniques for making water wells permitted hundreds of thousands of tube wells to be drilled in India, thereby eliminating much of the problem caused by erratic rain. Fertilizer use was multiplied, eliminating low yields caused by marginal soils. Pesticides and better weather forecasting reduced causes of crop loss. Developing country farmers proved willing and able to learn and apply improved techniques. Better machinery and many additional improvements contributed to higher yields. Production has more than tripled since 1948 with little need for increased growing land. (SFv)

225: Why is food production likely to increase faster than population growth in the developing countries in the future?

Genetic engineering should vastly improve the effectiveness of seeds. Solar collectors should make inexpensive electricity available. Plant life grown from about .0002% of incoming sunlight is now consumed by people and their animals, leaving room for vast increases in efficiency. All of the techniques used to increase production since 1948 can be applied more effectively.

226: What has the UN said about how much of the world's arable land has been in use?

One-third of potential agricultural land has been used, dropping to one-sixth if forested land is included.

The following land data, taken from the UN Statistical Yearbook, 1970, pp 110-113, is still substantially correct.

         Land   Agricul-          Land Under Crops           Area   tural              %          % Ag    Forest     %  Other         10,000   land     Total    Total        & For   Land      Land Land  Place      km2 (Potential)           Land         Land               Forest

World     13,392   4407   1406     11%         17%     4068       30%  4917  Africa     3,030   1047    204      7          12       629       21   1354  N. Amer.   2,241    627    253     12          17       815       36    799  S. Amer.   1,784    497     89      5           7       927       52    360  Asia       2,753    893    444     16          31       565       21   1295  China        956    287    109     11          28        77        8    592  India        328    178    164     50          68        61       18     89  Indnsa       190     13     13      7           8       152       80     25  Japan         37      7      7     15          18        25       68      5  Europe       493    240    149     30          40       140       28    113  Netherlands  3.6    2.2    .91     25          36       0.3        8    1.1  UK          24.4   19.4    7.4     28          35       1.9        8    3.1

(SY70 pp 110-113)

England and the Netherlands are about 15 times as crowded as the USA and more than 10 times as crowded as the world. When we consider that they are getting along fine and are using less than 40 percent of their agricultural land, we see that those who have claimed the world might not be able to feed everyone are incorrect. India is using only two-thirds of its agricultural and forest land to grow crops and feeds its people more than the 2,200 calories per day recommended by the U.S. Japan uses 18 percent of its agricultural and forest land for crops and is troubled with vast surpluses and complaints from other countries like the U.S. that are prevented from exporting food to Japan.

227: How much potential agricultural land is there in the world?

Total Land Area         Arable     Meadows &     Forest       Desert &  (billion hectares)      Land       Pastureland                Unsuitable       13.6               1.43          2.58        4.10           5.42

Arable land can be increased to the following totals:

     with existing methods   with capital    with new methods &         and no capital         investment     capital investment             2.67                  5.49              9.33  (MK)

228: People of how many of the most populated developing countries consume enough calories?

The most populated developing countries are: China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nigeria, Mexico, Vietnam, Philippines, Turkey, Thailand and Iran. (Q520) In 1988-1990, the people of all these countries except Bangladesh, where the average daily intake was 2,037 calories, (SF92 pp 255-257) averaged at least the 2,200 calories per day recommended for a healthy diet. (FN)

229: How accurate are the assertions of Planned Parenthood about the world food situation?

In its first paragraph, a recent Planned Parenthood fund-raising letter claims: "Each day, 38,000 people perish for lack of food and water." This is false. (See Q 207)

230: How costly would it be to produce a machine that would prevent malnutrition?

The UNFAO claims that a machine costing $1,000 can convert plant matter such as leaves, clover, alfalfa, etc., into human food. The food can be used in drinks, cakes, biscuits, soups, stews, pasta, etc. Ten million dollars spent for 10,000 machines properly distributed might prevent most human malnutrition caused by a lack of food. (CE)

REFERENCES

(CE)    United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization magazine Ceres,          Sept/Oct 1992, p 4  (FN)    Recommended daily allowances for calories for normally active persons          in a temperate climate; source, Food & Nutrition Board, National          Academy of Sciences-National Research Council; revised 1979-1980          as published under "Nutrition" in World Book Encyclopedia, 1986  (FO)    Jane Fonda, former anti-war activist and wife of Ted Turner, owner          of CNN, gave a speech on Population to the UN on September 20, 1993,          in which she omitted massive contradictory data and claimed that the          fact that more grain per person was not being grown after 1984 meant          that there were too many people and everyone could not be fed.  (MK)    K.M. Malin, Food Resources of the Earth Vol 3 p 6, Proceedings of          the World Population Conference, UN 1967  (PB)    Paul Ehrlich, Population Bomb, 1968, 1970  (PE)    Paul Ehrlich and Anne Ehrlich, Population Explosion, (1990) Simon &          Schuster, NY  (PR)    Paul Ehrlich, et al., Population, Resources, Environment, (1972)  (SF)    Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, The State of          Food and Agriculture, This is an annual report, so the year follows          the (SF). The term "v" means various years can be compared to verify          the reference.  (SW)    The State of the World's Children 1993 (UNICEF, United Nations          International Children's Emergency Fund), Oxford Press  (SY)    1970 UN Statistical Yearbook  (WD)    World Development Report 1993 (World Bank) Oxford University Press  (WW)    Worldwatch Institute publishes reports at least annually. These          reports typically focus in on some isolated non-typical area of non-          improvement and allege that it is representative of the rest of the          food situation, when, in fact, it is likely to be the worst news          among generally good news.

CHAPTER 3

RESOURCES AND ENERGY

301     What do advocates of population control say about resources and          energy?  302     What do opponents of population control say about resources and          energy?  303     How can one determine if the advocates or opponents of population          control are correct?  304     Have the advocates and opponents of population control ever made          exactly contradictory predictions of the future, so that we could          see which prediction was more correct?  305     Why has the price of all mineral resources always declined in real          price over the long run?  306     What causes resources to increase and prices of resources to          decrease?  307     Can "known reserves" actually increase?  308     How large are world petroleum reserves?  310     Why have U.S. petroleum reserves declined?  311     Can U.S. Government predictions of future petroleum supplies be          trusted?  312     Why have U.S. Government estimates of future petroleum supplies been          so inaccurate?  313     How much potential petroleum is there in the world?  314     How are oil fields formed?  315     How big are large Middle East oil fields?  316     

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